On Monday (August 25), for tense relationship between Russia and Ukraine, Maria Van der Hoeven, the Chief Executive of IEA claimed that EU still has high dependence on Russian gas in the short term and it needs more time to realize the diversification of energy supply.
Van der Hoeven pointed out that EU is lack of diversified leeway. In the foreseeable future, the gas from Russia is still indispensable for most of European countries. Nowadays, one third of gas consumption in EU comes from Russia. One fifth comes from Norway and the rest part comes from the Netherlands, Britain and other countries of EU. Modifying
gas import needs time and it cannot be finished overnight.
Last year, IEA predicted that in the next 20 years, gas import of EU will continue to increasing by 1.4 hundred billion cubic meters, reaching 4.5 hundred billion cubic. Increasing gas from the U.S. may be another option when inner output decreasing at the same. For consideration of transportation costs crossing though the Atlantic Ocean, the gas imported from the U.S. to EU is estimated t reach 50 billion cubic meters at most. Besides, the eastern of Mediterranean, Middles East and Africa are also potential gas sources. But those regions are suffering from the impact of geopolitical situations.
Nevertheless, IEA pointed out that for EU, Russian gas still has export competitiveness and it is still the main force to support demands for gas import in EU. So, it is impossible to change the interdependence between Russia and EU for energy supply in short term. In the next several decades, partnership between Russian and EU based on gas trade will be maintained.
